Tao of Pauly

College Basketball Preview

Last year I did not get to watch too much college basketball due to the long hours on Wall Street that I logged. My viewing was limited to highlights, just as Chris Capolongo admitted to me the other night, “I don’t watch basketball… but I watch Sportscenter.” I did poorly in the College Basketball Season Pool. But I got hot in the March Madness Tourney. I hit some big bets in Las Vegas and I ended up winning (my first pool) the Pauly’s Pub March Madness Cash Pool. I guess you can say that I started out slow last year and peaked just at the right time.

Alas a decade a go, a twenty-year old Pauly living in Atlanta, was unable to lead the Emory Eagles to a berth in the Division III basketball playoffs. A bum knee and a chronic drinking problem was my excuse, and Emory ended up under .500. Ten years later, I hope to make a difference. If I can’t play on a winning team… maybe I could pick a winning team. This year, I did a little research. I read a few magazines and I talked to a slew of college basketball experts and I have compiled the Tao of Pauly’s Top 10 Preseason Rankings. Enjoy.

1. North Carolina
2. UCONN
3. Duke
4. Missouri
5. Kentucky
6. Gonzaga
7. Michigan State
8. Florida
9. Illinois
10. Texas

Teams to watch: St. Joe’s, Providence & Manhattan

1. North Carolina: This year the Tar Heels added legendary coach Roy Williams to the mix, hoping to return to the NCAA tournament after a 6-10 record in ACC play last season. Sean May, a sophomore power forward, broke his foot last year and the Heels did not recover from his injury. His return will mean a strong inside presence to compliment the excellent outside shooting touch of Rashad McCants and the quickness of point guard Raymond Felton, whom many say might be the best point guard in the country. Jawad Williams averaged 15 ppg last season from the small forward spot and will have to step up this year.

2. UCONN: Everyone picked them to be #1, so I decided to shy away from the consensus. However, Emeka Okafor is the real deal. He might be the best legit center in the country and led the nation in shot blocking last year. Junior Ben Gordon (19.5 points last year) is one of my favorite players and can score from anywhere on the court. With all five starters returning, the Huskies could be a lock for a Final Four bid, especially after they signed a blue chip high schooler, a 6’10” power forward named Charlie Villanueva.

3. Duke: I’m a UNC fan. It’s hard for me to actually pick Duke this high, but after I put all the bad blood aside, I looked at their schedule, roster, and new recruits, and I can’t argue with the facts… Duke will go to the Final Four. Luol Deng was overshadowed last year by another high school phenom called LeBron James. The 6’8” Deng was the second best high school player in the country and opted for Duke instead of the NBA. He’ll slide into the power forward slot joining a team with 4 returning starters. Deng’s a journeyman at 18, after fleeing civil war in the Sudan, his family was chased out of Egypt, and then moved to London, before he attended a prep school in New Jersey. Shooting guard JJ Redick is ready to light it up as one of the best shooters in the ACC. Chris Duhon, the senior point guard, hopes to lead Duke to another ACC title.

4. Missouri: I like teams with returning starters. Missouri has four, led by senior forward Rickey Paulding's (17.4 ppg) shooting and senior center Arthur Johnson's (9.6 rebounding average) stellar post play. Paulding is one of the best scorers in the country after he improved his three point shooting (he nailed 9 in a NCAA tournament game last year). He is also a tenacious defender and started on the 4th place US Mean’s hoops team at the Pan Am Games this past summer. Missouri is one of the deepest teams in the country, with last year’s NCAA’s leading scorer Jason Conely (a transfer from VMI with 29.3 ppg) coming off the bench.

5. Kentucky: When Kentucky wins the NCAA tourney, the Yankees win the World Series. I was hoping Kentucky would have won last year (I picked them to go all the way) because the Yanks would have beaten the Fish last month. Alas, Kentucky returns three starters including Chuck Hayes, a short guy with a big heart, who will have to step it up this year. He is a solid rebounder and reminds me of Elton Brand. Gerald Fitch will have to improve his scoring and point guard Cliff Hawkins must keep his turnovers down, and keep those assist totals up.

6. Gonzaga: The Zags return three starters from last year’s 24-9 team. Point guard Blake Stepp averaged over 18 points last year and will be leading a deep team with a tough schedule. Center Cory Violette led the team in rebounding and power forward Ronny Turiaf (15.6 ppg) might go pro at the end of the season. If they can win some tough games this year, they’ll be a favorite to make the Final Four.

7. Michigan State: I would have picked them higher, but earlier this weekend, the Spartans almost got upset by lowly Bucknell (sorry Derek, I didn’t mean to tool on your alma mata). A close loss like that scares me. A lot of experts picked MSU to go to the Final Four. Tom Izzo is one of the best coaches around. Chris Hill is one of the best shooters in the Big Ten. He can do it all. Freshman Brandon Cotton, a McDonalds All-American, will see some time at point.

8. Florida: Gotta love any team that Billy “The Kid” Donavon coaches. They Gators bulked up this season. Power forward David Lee improved his shooting range in the off-season and added 20 pounds of muscle (and dropped 4% in body fat). The Gators added freshman Chris Richard (Mr. Basketball in the state of Florida) to help solidify a front line that got pushed around last year. Point guard Anthony Roberson might have the best one-on-one game in the SEC. He’ll be a factor for sure especially if you can’t stop his drives to the basket

9. Illinois: Who? Dee Brown. Get used to that name. He’s the leading scorer for the Illini and might be the quickest player in the country. Just a sophomore, he’ll be looking to improve on a second round NCAA tourney loss. Although they lost their coach Bill Self to Kansas, the Illini are expected to do well in the Big Ten with the deepest backcourt around. Deron Williams and freshman shooter Richard McBride will also lead the way.

10. Texas: With four returning starters (Buckman, Thomas, Mounton & Ivey) the Longhorns will be looking to return to the Final Four. They lost the quick and agile T.J. Ford, but the future of Texas lies on the shoulders of Brandon Mouton, who dropped 25 points in a loss to eventual champion Syracuse last year. James Thomas is one of the best rebounders in the country and they’re going to need his Windex wiping ability of they want to hold off some solid teams in the Big 12.

Teams to watch…

St. Joesph’s: Phil Martelli is a nut! And he’s one of my favorite coaches. I picked them to go to the Sweet 16 and they got knocked out in the first round by lowly Auburn. Their backcourt returns led by point guard Lameer Nelson and Delonte West who averaged 38 combined points last year.

Providence: With Senior guard Abdul Mills returning from a hip injury, look out. He can shoot and will join forward Ryan Gomes who should average a double-double this year.

Manhattan: The Jaspers should win the MAAC with NYC’s best scorer, senior Luis Flores, who dropped almost 25 points a game last year. He can light it up.