Tao of Pauly

Wednesday's Politico Roundup: Kerry Wins New Hampshire!

Kerry: 39%
Dean: 26%
Clark: 13%
Edwards: 12%
Lieberman: 9%

Well the people of New Hampshire have spoken and depending on who you listened to (that is, which spin doctors that you have been listening to...) everyone has opinions on who was the real winner. It's obvious that John Kerry won with a sizeable lead. But the Howard Dean camp is saying that they scored a moral victory coming in second place after last Monday's howling incident (they were down more than 20 points in the polls). The John Edwards supporters are saying, "Just wait til we hit the South!" And of course General Clark's camp is hoping that the Michael Moore endorsement will carry more weight on a national scale. And I dunno what the Lieberman camp is spinning... poor guy looked like a deer caught in the headlights last night. He went from being the Number #2 on the ticket four years ago to a serious afterthought! Kinda like that belch that bubbles up an hour after your meal. He's still shocked over Al Gore's endorsement of Dean.

Alas, the race was narrowed to two: Kerry & Dean. And the rest of the bunch: Edwards & Clark are not looking too good as the primaries switch to a national stage. Next Tuesday, there will be seven states to cover (South Carolina, Arizona, New Mexico, Missouri, Oklahoma, Delaware and North Dakota). The pundits are calling this a: TV and tarmac campaign... where the guys fly into states and small towns, hop off the airplane, smile for the cameras and give a quick sound bite for the random supporters that showed up... then it's back on the plane and off to another small town with a nice pocket of support to talk to, hands to shake, and more babies to kiss.

But the race is not over. With Kerry the obvious front runner, he'll be fielding attacks from all sides in the next week. Will he be able to handle himself? Will Edwards' southern twang steal some votes? Or will Kerry blow a huge lead and let Howard Dean slip in there. The bottom line is this: Howard Dean's campaign has better organization and has more funds. They are not going anywhere! However, with Kerry's win in New Hampshire, he should be getting more money, which he desperately needs. I read somewhere that Dean only spent 15% of his TV money on ads in New Hampshire, while Kerry spent 50% of his TV budget!! Alas, Dean's grassroots campaign via the web is more organized and more geek-saavy than Kerry's. Whoever raises more money this upcoming week will be primed to win Super Tuesday later in February.

I am not suprised that Kerry won New Hampshire, a state where the population is 95% white, because it's one of the most conservative states in the union. The obvious choice would be to pick the most conservative candidate and Kerry fit that mold. Dean is too far left for some of those folks and Kerry seemed so moderate. But now we're on the national stage, Dean will be getting more of those fringe votes... the voters who went for Ralph Nader and the Green Party and those who are just anti-Bush. And Edwards and Kerry will battle it out for the middle of the road votes... those Reagan Democrats (historically Democrats that voted for Reagan in 1980 and voted for Bush in 1988) that are essential to winning any Presidental campaign. Who will those NASCAR dads pick? Who will the younger votes float towards? Who will small businessmen support? If I knew those answers, I'd be predicting a winner for next week! Stay tuned.

Required Reading...

1. Big Test in the South is written by Adam Nagourney and appears in the NY Times.

Here's a bit: "The campaign now turns into what is in effect a national primary next Tuesday, with contests in seven states stretching from South Carolina to New Mexico. Aides to Mr. Edwards, Mr. Clark and Mr. Lieberman said they believed that this was fertile territory for their relatively moderate appeal and vowed to offer Mr. Kerry a tough fight in the days ahead. Dr. Dean, taking a page from presidential candidates from Eugene McCarthy to Bill Clinton, tried to portray his second-place showing as a win, noting that it had come just eight days after his third-place finish in Iowa."

2. The End of the World is written by Fred Barnes from The Weekly Standard.

Here's a bit: "In truth, it winnowed the Democratic field to one, John Kerry, with a second candidate, Howard Dean, barely hanging on. But three others -- Wesley Clark, John Edwards, and Joe Lieberman -- insist they'll compete in at least the seven primaries on February 3. Somebody please tell them their candidacies are over. If history prevails (and it often does), Kerry will be the Democratic nominee. Every candidate, Republican or Democrat, who has won both the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary has gone on to capture the nomination. Sure, Kerry is capable of screwing up so badly that he defies history, but it's not likely..."

3. Those With Endorsements May Lose by Winning is written by Jim Rutenberg from The New York Times.

Here's a bit: "It was but one weird moment in what political experts call one odd endorsement season. In states like Iowa and New Hampshire that decide on convention delegates early, the endorsements have gone well beyond the litany of newspapers, unions and politicians to include singers, filmmakers and movie stars. Whether the entertainers' support will prove more beneficial than traditional endorsements remains an open question..."

4. Clark Run Still Clouded is from The Village Voice and written by Sydney H. Schanberg, where she asks: "Why Didn't He Warn Us About War in Iraq?"

5. Dean's Camp Stiffs Iowa Deli with Tab... here's a bit: "deliveries are a little different, especially one back on the 16th of this month. That was a big order for this small business of four employees. 200 brown bag specials...with turkey, roast beef, ham and veggie sandwiches. The total...$963.01."

6. Liberal Is a Dirty Word for Geroge Carlin is an interview with one of my favorite comedians.

Here's a bit: "First of all, I'm not liberal. I'm just about (being) anti-United States. I don't like the way this country operates. I think we've ruined this place. And I think it's largely because of businessmen. And businessmen are not liberals. So if that makes me a liberal, then that's just an association. It's not a choice...."